The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will end up with 45.7%.
Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular value.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they often include large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 1.9 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.9 percentage points.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
Clinton has 3.2 percentage points more and Trump has 3.2 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Iowa.