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Iowa: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead


The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will end up with 45.7%.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they often include large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 1.9 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.9 percentage points.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

Clinton has 3.2 percentage points more and Trump has 3.2 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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