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Iowa: Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in new DeSart model


The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will end up with 49.4%.

Historically, Iowa has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.9 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.9 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 0.6 percentage points less and Trump has 0.6 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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