The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 32.1% of the two-party vote share in Idaho, while Trump will end up with 67.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Idaho econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 68.8%. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.9 percentage points higher.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 64.6% of the two-party vote in Idaho, which is 3.3 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model.