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Hawaii: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 70.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will end up with 29.9%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Hawaii sees Clinton at 64.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.0 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 67.8% in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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