Florida: Tossup between Clinton and Trump in new Jerome model

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, whereas Trump will end up with 49.0%.

Florida is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. Hence, the election outcome here is regarded critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Florida has Clinton at 49.5% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.5 percentage points worse.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.2% in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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