The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, whereas Trump will win 49.0%.
In Florida, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often incorporate substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 1.5 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.5 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
Clinton has 0.5 percentage points more and Trump has 0.5 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Florida.