DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in West Virginia

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 33.2% for Clinton and 66.8% for Trump in West Virginia.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump is currently at 60.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in West Virginia. This value is 6.4 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.9% in West Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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