DeSart model: Trump with comfortable lead in North Carolina

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will receive 46.4% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will win 53.6%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 3.0 percentage points less and Trump has 3.0 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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