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DeSart model: Trump with clear lead in Indiana

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The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.1% for Clinton and 57.9% for Trump in Indiana.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Indiana econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 57.2%. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.7 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.5% in Indiana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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