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DeSart model: Trump in Washington trails by a clear margin

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The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will collect 55.4% of the two-party vote share in Washington, while Trump will end up with 44.6%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may include large biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of Washington econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.1%. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.1% in Washington.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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