DeSart model: In New Jersey trails by a clear margin

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 56.9% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, whereas Trump will win 43.2%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 0.5 percentage points less and Trump has 0.5 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for New Jersey.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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