DeSart model: In Michigan trails by a small margin

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.5% for Clinton and 47.5% for Trump in Michigan.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 1.4 percentage points less and Trump has 1.4 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Michigan.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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