The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.0% for Clinton and 52.1% for Trump in Florida.
Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the two major political parties have often won similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is considered crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they often include large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Florida has Trump at 50.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.9% in Florida.