DeSart model: In Florida trails by a small margin

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will obtain 48.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will win 52.1%.

Historically, Florida has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they may include substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.5 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 2.6 percentage points less and Trump has 2.6 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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