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DeSart model in Arkansas: Trump with very clear lead

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The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 34.8% for Clinton and 65.2% for Trump in Arkansas.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they often include substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Arkansas sees Trump at 58.6% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 6.6 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 8.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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