DeSart model: Clinton with very clear lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 91.9% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 8.1%. In comparison, on August 11 Trump was still predicted to achieve 42.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 89.2%. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 90.3%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.