DeSart model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Illinois

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.6% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump in Illinois.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they may include large biases. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.4 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.4 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 3.7 percentage points less and Trump has 3.7 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Illinois.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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