DeSart model: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 57.3% for Clinton and 42.7% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate large biases. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 31.8 percentage points, while Trump did better with 31.8 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 33.0 percentage points less and Trump has 33.0 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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