DeSart model: Clinton in Texas trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 39.2% for Clinton and 60.9% for Trump in Texas.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Texas has Trump at 57.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.8 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Texas, which is 5.4 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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