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DeSart model: Clinton in Tennessee trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 36.7% for Clinton and 63.3% for Trump in Tennessee.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Tennessee sees Trump at 57.8% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 5.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 7.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 56.1% in Tennessee.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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