As of today, PollyVote concludes that Clinton will garner 52.7% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.3% for Trump.
A look at Polly's component methods
There is a consensus currently dominating the four available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 53.9% of the vote.
Compared to the previous week there have been the largest changes in the polls. Clinton wins 7.1 percentage points.
With 51.7% in Citizen forecasts the vote share for the Democrats is noticeably low in comparison to previous election years. This is the lowest value at that time in the campaign since 2004, when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. At that time, Citizen forecasts expected a vote share of 50.4% for Democratic candidate John Kerry, in the end he reached 48.8%.