Arkansas: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will obtain 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will win 51.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 6.6 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 6.6 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 5.1 percentage points more and Trump has 5.1 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Arkansas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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