Arizona: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will collect 42.7% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will end up with 57.3%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Arizona sees Trump at 57.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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