Alaska: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will receive 30.9% of the two-party vote share in Alaska, whereas Trump will end up with 69.1%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 64.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Alaska. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 4.5 percentage points lower.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 8.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.8% in Alaska.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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