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Rothschild model: Trump in Iowa trails by a clear margin


The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 57.0% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will end up with 43.0%.

In Iowa, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, as they can include large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Iowa has Clinton at 52.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.

The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.6% in Iowa. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 4.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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