The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 57.0% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will end up with 43.0%.
In Iowa, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, as they can include large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Iowa has Clinton at 52.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.
The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.6% in Iowa. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 4.2 percentage points higher.