Rothschild model: Trump in Delaware trails by a very clear margin

The Rothschild model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 99.0% for Clinton and 1.0% for Trump in Delaware.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, you should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Delaware has Clinton at 55.4% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 43.6 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 34.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 65.0% in Delaware. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 46.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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