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Rothschild model in Pennsylvania: Trump with small lead


The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 48.0% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, whereas Trump will end up with 52.0%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 48.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Pennsylvania. This value is 3.9 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

The Rothschild model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 5.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 46.8% in Pennsylvania. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 4.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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