The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will collect 32.0% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 68.0%.
In Ohio, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Ohio econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 49.8%. In comparison to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 18.2 percentage points lower.
The Rothschild model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 18.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.1% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 20.8 percentage points higher.