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Rothschild model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead


The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will collect 32.0% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 68.0%.

In Ohio, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Ohio econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 49.8%. In comparison to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 18.2 percentage points lower.

The Rothschild model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 18.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.1% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 20.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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