Rothschild model in New Jersey: Clinton with very clear lead

The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 99.0% for Clinton and 1.0% for Trump in New Jersey.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of New Jersey econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 57.3%. This value is 41.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in New Jersey, which is 41.6 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 46.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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