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Rothschild model in New Hampshire: Clinton is in the lead


The Rothschild model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 71.0% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, while Trump will end up with 29.0%.

In New Hampshire, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New Hampshire has Clinton at 52.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 18.7 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire, which is 18.5 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 18.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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