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Rothschild model in Montana: Trump with very clear lead


The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 1.0% for Clinton and 99.0% for Trump in Montana.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Montana econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.3%. Compared to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 41.7 percentage points lower.

The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 41.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.1% in Montana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 51.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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