Rothschild model in Missouri: Trump is in the lead

The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will receive 1.0% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, whereas Trump will end up with 99.0%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 55.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Missouri. This value is 44.0 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 44.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 51.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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