The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 99.0% for Clinton and 1.0% for Trump in Illinois.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Illinois econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 45.0 percentage points worse.
The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 41.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.5% in Illinois. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 46.2 percentage points higher.