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Rothschild model in Illinois: Clinton with very clear lead


The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 99.0% for Clinton and 1.0% for Trump in Illinois.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Illinois econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 45.0 percentage points worse.

The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 41.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.5% in Illinois. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 46.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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