Rothschild model in Florida: Trump with very clear lead

The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 24.0% for Clinton and 76.0% for Trump in Florida.

In Florida, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Florida econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.5%. This value is 25.5 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 26.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.6% in Florida. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 28.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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