Rothschild model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 1.0% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will win 99.0%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 57.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Arizona. Compared to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 41.7 percentage points worse.

The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in Arizona, which is 45.1 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 51.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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