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Rothschild model: Clinton with clear lead in Wisconsin


The Rothschild model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 60.0% of the two-party vote share in Wisconsin, while Trump will win 40.0%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Wisconsin sees Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.9 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 6.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.0% in Wisconsin. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 7.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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