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Rothschild model: Clinton in North Carolina trails by a very clear margin


The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model's forecast is that Clinton will garner 10.0% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will win 90.0%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, you should look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 53.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in North Carolina. This value is 36.8 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 38.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.2% in North Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 42.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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