Rothschild model: Clinton in Nevada trails by a very clear margin

The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 39.0% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will win 61.0%.

In Nevada, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they may contain substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 48.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Nevada. Relative to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 12.3 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada, which is 12.0 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 13.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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