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Rothschild model: Clinton in Indiana trails by a very clear margin


The Rothschild model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 1.0% for Clinton and 99.0% for Trump in Indiana.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Indiana sees Trump at 57.3% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 41.7 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 43.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.5% in Indiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 51.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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