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Rothschild model: Clinton in Georgia trails by a very clear margin


The Rothschild model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 1.0% for Clinton and 99.0% for Trump in Georgia.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Georgia econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 54.5%. In comparison to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 44.5 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Georgia, which is 47.0 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 51.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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