Putting the results in context

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump in Nevada.

Historically, Nevada has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.1% in Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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