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Putting the results in context

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The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will garner 51.5% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will win 48.5%.

In Nevada, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, you should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Nevada, which is 0.4 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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