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Putting the results in context

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The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton and 49.6% for Trump in New Hampshire.

Historically, New Hampshire has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.2% in New Hampshire.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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