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New Hampshire: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump in New Hampshire.

Historically, New Hampshire has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why predictions here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.2% in New Hampshire.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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