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Latest Rothschild model in Virginia: Clinton and Trump virtually tied

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The Rothschild model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.0% for Clinton and 51.0% for Trump in Virginia.

In Virginia, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Virginia has Trump at 53.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Virginia, which is 1.3 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 3.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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