The Rothschild model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.0% for Clinton and 51.0% for Trump in Virginia.
In Virginia, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results vs. other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Virginia has Trump at 53.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Rothschild model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Virginia, which is 1.3 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 3.8 percentage points higher.