Jerome model in New Jersey: Clinton with clear lead
The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 57.7% for Clinton and 42.3% for Trump in New Jersey.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, as they often include large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.3% in New Jersey.