Jerome model in Kentucky: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump in Kentucky.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they often include large biases. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 7.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.9% in Kentucky.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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