Jerome model: Clinton in North Carolina trails by a small margin

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will win 52.8%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.2% in North Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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