Jerome model: Clinton in Montana trails by a moderate margin

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 45.3% for Clinton and 54.7% for Trump in Montana.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.1% in Montana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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