DeSart model in New Jersey: Clinton with clear lead

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 56.9% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, whereas Trump will end up with 43.2%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in New Jersey, which is 0.4 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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